Moneylines vs fair value · loading…
* Fanatics hold, +EV exposure, expected profit and pickoff risk are estimates. Fanatics publishes one reference price per outcome with no bid/ask, so a bettor's cost is taken as that price + 0.5¢ (half the 1¢ minimum spread) + its published per-contract fee ($0.02 for contracts priced 20–80¢). Wider real spreads would raise its hold and lower its +EV exposure and pickoff risk.
Execution order: take first, quote second, pass on everything else. Counts cover all currently priced outcomes and update with the quote settings and refreshed prices.
Price column: the book picked at the top. Fanatics = Fanatics Markets' public price (one reference price, likely a mid, not a bid/ask), with dollars traded below. A sportsbook = its devigged moneyline, with the American odds it actually quotes below. Tiles and breakdowns follow the picked book: every logged snapshot for that book (sportsbook logging began Nov 3; until a book has history, the current snapshot). Fair: devigged Pinnacle (weight 2) + BetOnline (weight 1). Internal: the price Fanatics could show in its own app, fair ± the internal half-spread (plus half the book disagreement and 0.5 pt when sharp odds are stale). External: the price to compete on a consolidated book, improving or joining the best Kalshi/Polymarket price while staying at least the min edge from fair ("take" = the best book is already past fair by at least the min edge after taker fees). "overpriced" / "underpriced" under Gap = the picked book's price sits above / below the maker band around fair. Exchange books: average mid of the Kalshi and Polymarket live books (YES terms); click it for each book's bid, ask and spread, and whether the picked book alone is off or the whole market is. Sorted by the largest gap; hover a header for more.
