Track record
loading…
Each finished game is graded on the last read before kickoff, buying YES on the team at the logged exchange price (fee included), 1 unit per side. Sharp CLV = closing sharp fair minus the sharp fair when flagged. Follows the league and market filters above.
Recent flags
How to read it
A
big play is one taker order of
$2,500+ (NFL) or
$1,000+ (CFB) on Kalshi or Polymarket in the last 36 hours before kickoff, counted for the team it backs (YES on a team, or NO on its opponent). Kalshi splits one order into a fill per resting order; those are merged back first. A team is flagged when it passes check 1:
- Whale money: big orders put $100k+ (NFL) / $15k+ (CFB) on the team, and 65%+ of the game's big-order dollars.
- Money > tickets: its share of dollars beats its share of orders by 10+ pts.
- Steam: the exchange price moved 1+ pt toward it.
All three =
HEAVY, two =
STRONG, whale money only =
WATCH.
It shows where size went, not that size is right: big orders can be hedges or arbitrage. Early backtest (62 games): flagged teams' sharp line moved +0.8 pts their way before kickoff vs −0.1 for the rest, on only 14 flags.
